Development of the global petroleum products market: opportunities and constraints


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Abstract

The current stage of development of the global petroleum products market is characterised by a unique confluence of global challenges that compel to re-evaluate its prospects. It is viewed not simply in the context of increasing production and consumption of crude oil and its refined products, but rather as a fundamental transformation of the entire system of market relations in this segment of the global economy. The key idea of the paper is to conduct a comparative analysis of existing forecasts and scenarios for the development of the global oil market, characterised by a state of structural break caused by the confrontation between two multidirectional trends – the spread of the “green agenda” aimed at reducing the use of mineral resources, and the increase in demand for petroleum products from developing countries. The authors identified a contradiction between the inertia of oil demand and the pressure of the energy transition, which causes a structural transformation of the economies of most states. It is shown that the “green agenda” acts not as an external threat, but as an internal factor determining investment decisions and the future map of global commodity flows of petroleum products. It replaces linear forecasts with the analysis of bifurcation points and strategic flexibility. The paper analyses the historical dynamics and current state of key parameters of the global petroleum products market, identifies drivers of uncertainty, and constructs models for the future development of this segment. It is concluded that the high uncertainty of the current dynamics of the global petroleum products market conditions is determined not so much by environmental factors as by geopolitical and economic factors.

About the authors

Sergey A. Zhironkin

T.F. Gorbachev Kuzbass State Technical University (KuzSTU)

Author for correspondence.
Email: zhironkin@inbox.ru

Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor,
professor of Chair of Surface Mining.

Russian Federation, 650000, Russia, Kemerovo, Vesennyaya Street, 28.

Maria E. Konovalova

Samara State University of Economics

Email: mkonoval@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1876-8144

Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor,
Director of the Institute of National and Global Economy

Russian Federation, 443090, Russia, Samara, Sovetskoy Armii Street, 141

Olga Yu. Kuzmina

Samara State University of Economics

Email: pisakina83@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4460-0468

PhD (Economics), Associate Professor,
assistant professor of Chair of Economic Theory. 

Russian Federation, 443090, Russia, Samara, Sovetskoy Armii Street, 141.

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Copyright (c) 2026 Zhironkin S.A., Konovalova M.E., Kuzmina O.Y.

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