Intellectual education and R&D investment: assessing factors for achieving technological sovereignty

Abstract: Problem. Achieving technological sovereignty requires an analysis of the factors that ensure an effective return on R&D investment. Aim. To assess quantitatively the contribution of STEM education quality to the transformation of R&D expenditure into patent activity and to identify institutional factors that ensure a positive deviation of actual indicators from predicted ones (using China as a case study). Methods. The study combines qualitative analysis of China’s institutional model (including the “Made in China 2025” strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative, the “Double First-Class” program) with quantitative econometric modeling. The empirical basis comprises data from 77 countries for the period 2019–2023. Using regression analysis (OLS), the elasticity of patent activity (number of resident patent applications per capita) with respect to R&D expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) was estimated. Results. A direct relationship was identified between the quality of STEM education (PISA math 2018) and the efficiency of transforming R&D into patents: a 10-point increase in the PISA score is associated with a 6.4 % increase in patent activity, holding R&D expenditure constant. China is highlighted as an in-depth case study that verifies the model’s conclusions. A positive and statistically significant elasticity was established: a 1 % increase in R&D expenditure is accompanied by an average 1.21 % increase in patent activity, confirming a high return on investment in the scientific sphere. Based on country clustering, three groups were identified: high-efficiency countries (actual indicator close to predicted), medium-efficiency countries (actual indicator below predicted), and limited-efficiency countries (significant lag behind predicted). China, along with South Korea and Switzerland, is assigned to the first group. Conclusions. The key factors of the Chinese model are: large-scale training of STEM specialists (up to 10 million annually) with leading positions in PISA; institutional integration of education, science, and business according to the triple helix model; and the use of fiscal incentives based on the innovation funnel principle, combining direct government funding (2.5 % of GDP for R&D) with tax incentives.