The influence of the institutional environment and transport infrastructure on the development of e‑commerce in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation

Abstract. Problem. The scientific literature remains uncertain about the nature of the impact of transport infrastructure on the development of e‑commerce in Russian regions. Traditional models assume complementarity between physical and digital infrastructure; however, empirical evidence points to possible paradoxical effects that have not yet received system-atic explanation. Aim. To identify and econometrically substantiate models of spatial development of e‑commerce in Rus-sian regions, accounting for the moderating influence of institutional environment quality and infrastructural constraints. Methods. The empirical basis comprises panel data from Rosstat and EMISS for 83 constituent entities of the Federation. To overcome the limitations of standard models and account for unobserved regional heterogeneity, random effects regres-sion modeling with the Mundlak correction is applied. This allows consistent estimation of the influence of both time‑varying and relatively time‑invariant factors. Results. Based on a descriptive split of the sample at the median level of informal employment (20.75%), it is found that in regions with a high share of the shadow sector, transport infrastruc-ture deficiency is statistically significantly associated with an outpacing growth of online sales (a “compensatory” model). In regions with an institutional environment above the median level, this effect is neutralized, indicating a shift in the na-ture of the relationship between infrastructure and platform retail. Conclusions. The study contributes to the discussion on the digital divide, demonstrating that technological adaptation of businesses in peripheral regions may take paradoxical forms. The findings suggest a differentiated approach to regional policy: for depressed territories, stimulating mi-cro‑logistics – parcel pickup points – may be considered as a hypothetical adaptation mechanism during the long‑term modernization of the road network.