Digital Economy & InnovationsDigital Economy & InnovationsЦифровая экономика и инновации3034-20743034-4204Togliatti State University88310.18323/3034-2074-2025-3-62-3ArticlesСтатьиResearch ArticleTechnological innovations and premature deindustrialization: evidence from middle-income countriesТехнологические инновации и преждевременная деиндустриализация: пример стран со средним уровнем доходаhttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-2665-7616Tsafack MiafoDieubenitЦафак МиафоДойбенит
Cameroon

doctoral student, Dschang School of Economics and Management

докторант, факультет экономики и менеджмента

Dieubenit.tsafack@univ-dschang.orgNoulaArmand GilbertНоулаАрманд Гилберт
Cameroon

Associate Professor, Dschang School of Economics and Management

доцент, факультет экономики и менеджмента

armandgilbert@yahoo.frBondomaYokono DieudonnéБондомаЙоконо Дойдонне
Cameroon

Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Management

доцент, факультет экономики и менеджмента

dbondoma@yahoo.frhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2854-4371GhamsiDeffo Salomon LeroyГамсиДеффо Саломон Лерой
Cameroon

PhD, Dschang School of Economics and Management

доктор наук, факультет экономики и менеджмента

lavoidef@gmail.comUniversity of DschangУниверситет ДшангUniversity of Yaounde IIУниверситет Яунде 2011020253315030092025Copyright ©; 2025, Tsafack Miafo D., Noula A.G., Bondoma Yo.D., Ghamsi D.S.L.Copyright ©; 2025, Цафак Миафо Д., Ноула А.Г., Бондома Й.Д., Гамси Д.С.Л.2025Tsafack Miafo D., Noula A.G., Bondoma Yo.D., Ghamsi D.S.L.Цафак Миафо Д., Ноула А.Г., Бондома Й.Д., Гамси Д.С.Л.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0https://vektornaukieconomika.ru/jour/article/view/883

Premature deindustrialization (PDI) has emerged as a critical challenge for middle-income countries amidst rapid technological innovations and globalization. This study explores how technological innovations (TI), measured by patent applications, influence PDI across 89 middle-income countries from 1980–2022. A novel composite index, integrating income levels and manufacturing sector contributions (value-added and employment shares), is developed to quantify PDI. Employing robust econometric techniques, including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with Oster’s stability test and Instrumental Variable Generalized Method of Moments (IV-GMM), we find that TI significantly reduces PDI’s likelihood. These results, consistent across subsamples and multiple robustness checks, underscore the pivotal role of innovation in fostering sustainable industrial growth. This research offers critical insights for policymakers aiming to balance technological advancement with industrial development in middle-income economies.

Преждевременная деиндустриализация в условиях быстрого развития технологических инноваций и глобализации стала критической проблемой для стран со средним уровнем дохода. В данном исследовании рассматривается влияние технологических инноваций, измеряемых патентными заявками, на преждевременную деиндустриализацию в 89 странах со средним уровнем дохода в период с 1980 по 2022 г. Для количественной оценки преждевременной деиндустриализации разработан принципиально новый составной индекс, объединяющий уровни доходов и вклад обрабатывающей промышленности (добавленную стоимость и долю занятости). Используя надежные эконометрические методы, включая метод наименьших квадратов (МНК) в сочетании с тестом на устойчивость Остер и подход инструментальных переменных обобщенного метода моментов (IV-GMM), мы обнаружили, что технологические инновации значительно снижают вероятность преждевременной деиндустриализации. Эти результаты, согласующиеся по всем подвыборкам и многократно проверенные на устойчивость, подчеркивают ключевую роль инноваций в содействии устойчивому промышленному росту. Исследование предлагает ценные идеи для законодателей, стремящихся сбалансировать технологический прогресс и промышленное развитие в странах со средним уровнем дохода.

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