MODELING OF INDICATORS OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF THE MARI EL REPUBLIC

The paper analyzes key indicators of foreign economic activity of the Mari El Republic in terms of export and import operations. The level of development of the region’s foreign trade largely determines the general state of the territory’s economy, the volume of gross regional product, the possibility of expanding trade operations, the potential inflow of foreign direct investment, and, ultimately, characterizes the living standard of the republic population. The construction of models of export and import volumes in the region allows identifying types of economic activities, the development of which will make it possible to increase the volume of foreign trade operations, and carry out targeted control of budget spending. Based on the statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Mari El Republic and the methodology of multiple regression analysis, the author determined the factors of significant impact on the volume of export-import operations, identified their absolute and relative effect on the scale of foreign trade transactions. The selection of factorial features during modeling is performed by using the algorithm of the step-by-step method, which allows excluding statistically insignificant indicators from the model. The model of export volumes shows a significant impact on the size of the region exports for the production of other non-metallic mineral products and the production of electronic, optical, and electrical equipment. The import value model shows the determining effect of the food production index on the number of goods imported into the region. The built dependencies make it possible to persistently develop the industrial sphere of the Mari El Republic, plan the introduction of import-substituting technologies and productions, reasonably increase the output of products and mass consumer goods, expand exports of high-tech and knowledge-intensive products in the necessary ratio, and, ultimately, contribute to the creation and development of new industrial productions.

the Mari El Republic, indicators of foreign economic activity, export volumes model, import volumes model, regression equation, factorial features