THE SUBSTANTIATION OF METHODOLOGICAL TOOLS FOR THE FORECASTING OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEMS


Cite item

Full Text

Abstract

This paper covers the study of such an important part of the regional economic policy as the national economic planning and the methods of its analytical and prognostic substantiation. The author defines the framework for the application and further development of management philosophy of the prognostic work within the system of tools of the society modernization process and pays special attention to the scientifically grounded forecasting preparation of decision-making, which becomes one of the determining factors for the sustainable development of enterprises, industries, complexes, and regions. The author continues the research on the substantiation of tools for monitoring and forecasting of the development of Russian regions on the basis of the creative application and further improvement of basic provisions, and, first of all, the provisions on the unity of forecast and strategy, scientific foresight and active formation of new economic relations at the regional level. The integration scheme of the sustainable development estimated figures in the strategy of economic development of the regional economic systems is proposed. The author substantiates the tools of sustainable development forecasting, among which are the following: the forecasting technique, i.e., the characteristics of the most important methods in their internal interrelation; the application of forecasting techniques to the analysis of the problems of the development of technical and economic systems (forecasting modeling); the estimation of the forecasts’ reliability. The sustainable development of a territory is considered by the author as the technology of the deliberate progress within the society-nature-economy system taking into account the institutional environment. The author proposes the set of indicators for the current situation assessment and the forecasting of a territory from the perspective of sustainable development.

About the authors

Maksim Aleksandrovich Shatalov

Voronezh Institute of Economics and Law, Voronezh

Author for correspondence.
Email: nauka-vepi@yandex.ru

PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Head of Research Department

Russian Federation

References

  1. Efimova O.V., Morozov A.B. Development of methodology and technology for designing a model of the transport company’s business. Sovremennye gumanitarnye issledovaniya, 2011, no. 1, pp. 33–36.
  2. Ivanovskaya V.Yu., Ivanovskaya A.L. Labour market in Vologda region: analysis of problems and territorial features of development. Molochnokhozyaystvennyy vestnik, 2015, no. 4, pp. 106–111.
  3. Ablaev I.M. Innovation potential of the economy of the region, the system of indicators. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 2015, vol. 6, no. 1S3, pp. 309–312.
  4. Bogachev V.F., Veretennikov N.P., Evgrafova L.E. Social and economic aspects of sustainable development of commercial fishery in Arctic. Vestnik Murmanskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta, 2014, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 431–436.
  5. Kapelyuk Z.A., Kapelyuk S.D. Statistical estimation of regional factors of the socio-demographic development of the village. Vestnik Belgorodskogo universiteta kooperatsii, ekonomiki i prava, 2012, no. 1, pp. 162–168.
  6. Matveev A.S., Matveev O.A. Preobrazovanie ekonomiki severnykh regionov Rossii na sovremennom etape [Transformation of the economy of the northern regions of Russia at the present stage]. Moscow, Sovremennaya ekonomika i pravo Publ., 2007. 343 p.
  7. A Sustainable Europe for a Better World: A European Union Strategy for Sustainable Development. URL: ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/archive/innovation/pdf/library/strategy_sustdev_en.pdf.
  8. Arefev P.V. Overcoming social differentiation as a factor in the transition to sustainable economic growth. Vestnik Finansovogo universiteta, 2014, no. 1, pp. 48–63.
  9. Voronov V.V. Convergence regions in European Union: features and assessment. Ekonomicheskie i sotsialnye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz, 2014, no. 6, pp. 85–99.
  10. Morgunova E.P. Features of Retail Real Estate Market Dynamics in the North-Caucasian Region. Nauchnye issledovaniya i razrabotki. Ekonomika firmy, 2013, vol. 2, no. 3-4, pp. 19–23.
  11. Shagieva A.Kh. Conceptual Approaches to Modeling the Processes of Institutionalization of Anti-Crisis Management under the Conditions of the Cyclical Development of Economic Systems. Natsionalnaya bezopasnost / nota bene, 2011, no. 6, pp. 84–93.
  12. Nedospasova O.P., Putilov A.V., Moiseeva O.A. Method of assessment of corporate investment efficiency in cumulation of human capital for non-ferrous metallurgy. Tsvetnye metally, 2015, no. 3, pp. 40–46.
  13. Sagidov Yu.N. Motivational stimuli as factors of development. Regionalnaya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika, 2014, no. 46, pp. 13–23.
  14. Gavrilova N.G. Modeling of distribution and specialization of production and economic relations of enterprises in a special agro-industrial zone. Vestnik Vserossiyskogo nauchno-issledovatelskogo instituta mekhanizatsii zhivotnovodstva, 2014, no. 3, pp. 133–138.
  15. Maksimenko A.A. Value management and its importance in modern management. Obshchestvo. Sreda. Razvitie, 2011, no. 2, pp. 98–102.
  16. Okunev O.B. Modelling and prognostication of Russian insurance market development. Strakhovoe delo, 2009, no. 12, pp. 3–8.
  17. Gnevasheva V.A. Forecasting the economy: concepts and history. Znanie. Ponimanie. Umenie, 2005, no. 2, pp. 141–144.
  18. Sokolinskiy V.M., Korolkov V.E. Economic data: its search algorithms. Finansovyy biznes, 2013, no. 2, pp. 74–80.
  19. Kovaltchuk A.P., Dedusenko E.A., Blinova E.A., Miloradov K.A. Concept and procedures of crisis management in Russian hotel enterprises. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 2016, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 473–480.
  20. Ovcharenko A.N., Krasnoselov D.K. The situation of risk in making managerial decisions. Uchenye zapiski Rossiyskogo gosudarstvennogo sotsialnogo universiteta, 2011, no. 3, pp. 103–108.

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML
Download

Copyright (c)