SPECIAL ASPECTS OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF A MODERN PRODUCTION CYCLE

The paper covers the special aspects of statistical analysis of a modern production cycle. The authors give the definition of such concepts as “modern macroeconomic cycle” and “production cycle” and attempt to identify their features within the conditions of the transition from the industrial stage to the postindustrial stage of the social and economic development. The paper defines the science industries field, within which the study of macroeconomic and production cycles are carried out. In the paper, the basic macroeconomic processes are determined and their interrelations are described. The identified general informatization, structural transformation, innovatization, capitalization of labor resources, production services, science-intensive and technotronic renewal and transformation of productive forces, the introduction of new forms of investment provision determine in general the transformational nature of modern macrocycle. The authors consider the essential characteristics of modern production cycle, its distinctive features from the classical interpretation of the “industrial cycle” and interpret a production cycle as a structural component of modern macroeconomic cycle reflecting changes in the dynamics and the structure of production, formed by the information, investment, technological processes, and determining the structural and social changes in the economy and society as a whole. Main attention is paid to the development of a comprehensive methodology for analyzing the modern production cycle, which is based on the combination of the process and dynamic approaches. Within the framework of developed model, the algorithm of statistical analysis of the modern production cycle is presented, which includes the systematization of indicators in accordance with the features of statistical base of the research level with their phase-by-phase characteristics within the framework of the process approach for determining the current phase of a production cycle, as well as the analysis of the cause-effect dependencies of this cycle and the characteristics of the balance of indicators in it within the framework of the dynamic approach.