THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE BANK LENDING INFLUENCE ON THE LONG-TERM GROWTH RATE OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Globalization trends, liberalization, and the recent financial crisis have attracted interest in the importance of bank credit and its impact on economic growth. In this context, the paper analyzes the role of commercial bank lending in economic growth in Russia, focusing on the cause-effect relationship between commercial bank credit and economic growth. The paper presents the statistical relationship between lending volumes and the growth rate of the Russian economy. Based on the recommendations of domestic and foreign literature on economic theory, the authors identified the financial indicators as the factors of economic growth: the volume of loans issued to individuals and legal entities, the real interest rate on loans, the dynamics of GDP and money supply (М2). The authors carried out data analysis to determine whether the domestic loans issued by banks had an impact on economic growth. Annual data, including 2012-2018, were used. As a result of the analysis of panel data, it was proved that loans generated by the banking sector influenced economic growth. The data obtained indicate that the increase in loans from commercial banks to the private sector directly influences the real incomes of the population. At the same time, the analysis of the series of dynamics of indicators confirms that the impact of lending on GDP growth and money supply during periods of shrinking financing of government programs is more effective than during the soft monetary policy periods.

bank lending, economic growth, factor analysis, commercial bank, econometric model