Structural transformations of the Russian economy under the influence of shocks and national economic security


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Abstract

In the last decade, the economic development conditions have changed significantly. It gives us the right to say that a new period called post-normality has begun in global economic evolution. This transition is associated with the high volatility of economic development indicators and the emergence of new threats to national economic security. One way to counter them is to change the structure of the economy. The paper considers the influence of the dynamics of transitional (crisis) states on the economic system structure. The following statement was adopted as a research hypothesis: crisis manifestations in the national economy of Russia cause its structural restructuring. The author carried out the analysis of the dynamics of gross value added in general and by sectors of the Russian economy for the period from 2011 to 2022, during which three shocks (crises) caused by the Crimean sanctions (2014–2015), the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), and unprecedented anti-Russian sanctions (2022) were observed. The author calculated the correlation coefficients for the dynamics of total and sectoral output, which allowed identifying the economy sectors developing co-directionally, oppositely, and indifferently to the dynamics of total output. New and somewhat paradoxical results related to the division of the economy into these sectors were obtained, which require further analysis. In relation to shocks (crises) accompanied by a drop in gross value added in the Russian economy as a whole, the author calculated the coefficients characterizing structural shifts in the economy. As a result, the proposed hypothesis was confirmed. The observed macroeconomic shocks were accompanied each time by structural shifts: the specific shares of sectors in the Russian economy changed. Just the data for 2022 look unusual, which allowed making a forecast about the intensification of structural shifts with an annual lag in 2023. This forecast requires further verification as additional numerical data become available. At the same time, the author noted that structural changes in the Russian economy are not active enough, which requires the activation of the state structural economic policy.

About the authors

Vladimir Aleksandrovich Plotnikov

St. Petersburg State University of Economics, St. Petersburg

Author for correspondence.
Email: Plotnikov_2000@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3784-6195

Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, professor of Chair of General Economic Theory and History of Economic Thought

Russian Federation

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