MODELING AND FORECASTING OF CONTROL SYSTEM INDICATORS IN THE MARI EL REPUBLIC

The emerging clear tendency of the reduction in the number of employees of state authorities and the system of local self-government indicates the decrease in the attractiveness of this area of activity for young personnel. It is advisable to start the analysis of the local government system development by studying its structure at the municipalities’ level of the region. The author uses the cluster analysis methods, which are the main components implementing the inductive and deductive research algorithms, adaptive forecasting methods based on exponential smoothing, autoregression, and integrated running aggregate techniques. The paper presents the classification of the Mari El municipalities according to the indicators of the local self-government system development, specifies the least and the most numerous clusters, and gives their characteristics. The author formed aggregate indicators influencing the average monthly salary of civil servants and municipal employees of local government structures. Classification of municipalities in the region shows that most districts are represented by the average wage of employees of the governing authorities. Considering the fact that the Mari El Republic is characterized by low wage levels compared to other subjects of the Volga Federal District, the study allows concluding that the level of remuneration of employees of the local government system is a key factor determining the attractiveness of this sphere in the labor market of municipalities of the region. Formed aggregated indicators at the level of the Republic, as a whole, show the maximum impact of urban indicators on the overall development of local governing structures.

the Mari El Republic, control system indicators, local self-government system of the Mari El Republic, classification of the Mari El municipal entities, municipal level factor, rural level factor, factor of salary level percentage ration