Assessment of the fiscal space of Russian regions in the context of ensuring sustainable development and achieving technological sovereignty

The study covers the assessment of the possibilities of expanding the fiscal space of Russian regions in the context of geopolitical tension and sanction restrictions. The relevance of the work is caused by the need to form sources of financial resources to ensure long-term sustainability of regional budgets and maintain economic growth, taking into account the increase in the period for achieving national development goals, ensuring financial and technological sovereignty. The purpose of the work is to identify reserves for expanding the fiscal space of regions based on the analysis of the dynamics of public debt and to develop proposals for expanding the fiscal space, subject to ensuring sustainable development and achieving technological sovereignty. The paper analyzes the dynamics of the public debt of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period 2020–2022, its structure and relationship with the gross regional product. The methodological base includes statistical analysis of the dynamics of public debt and gross regional product (GRP), regression analysis using the integrated least-squares model, fixed-effects and random-effects models, which allows identifying the impact of public debt on the economic development of the regions. The author notes a positive relationship between the growth of public debt and the increase in real GRP (elasticity of 1.125 %), which confirms the potential of debt financing to stimulate economic growth with certain limitations. The structure of debt obligations has shifted towards budget loans, which indicates the priority of non-market financing instruments. Excessive debt growth creates risks for long-term financial sustainability, especially in the context of increasing costs of it’s servicing. The paper suggests areas for expanding the fiscal space, including optimizing the debt structure, increasing the efficiency of budgetary processes and stimulating innovation and investment processes, prioritizing expenses, financial stimulation of industries related to technology development, and introducing digital technologies into the management of fiscal and economic processes.