No 1 (2025)
- Year: 2025
- Published: 31.03.2025
- Articles: 3
- URL: https://vektornaukieconomika.ru/jour/issue/view/63
Full Issue
Assessment of the fiscal space of Russian regions in the context of ensuring sustainable development and achieving technological sovereignty
Abstract
The study covers the assessment of the possibilities of expanding the fiscal space of Russian regions in the context of geopolitical tension and sanction restrictions. The relevance of the work is caused by the need to form sources of financial resources to ensure long-term sustainability of regional budgets and maintain economic growth, taking into account the increase in the period for achieving national development goals, ensuring financial and technological sovereignty. The purpose of the work is to identify reserves for expanding the fiscal space of regions based on the analysis of the dynamics of public debt and to develop proposals for expanding the fiscal space, subject to ensuring sustainable development and achieving technological sovereignty. The paper analyzes the dynamics of the public debt of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period 2020–2022, its structure and relationship with the gross regional product. The methodological base includes statistical analysis of the dynamics of public debt and gross regional product (GRP), regression analysis using the integrated least-squares model, fixed-effects and random-effects models, which allows identifying the impact of public debt on the economic development of the regions. The author notes a positive relationship between the growth of public debt and the increase in real GRP (elasticity of 1.125 %), which confirms the potential of debt financing to stimulate economic growth with certain limitations. The structure of debt obligations has shifted towards budget loans, which indicates the priority of non-market financing instruments. Excessive debt growth creates risks for long-term financial sustainability, especially in the context of increasing costs of it’s servicing. The paper suggests areas for expanding the fiscal space, including optimizing the debt structure, increasing the efficiency of budgetary processes and stimulating innovation and investment processes, prioritizing expenses, financial stimulation of industries related to technology development, and introducing digital technologies into the management of fiscal and economic processes.



G-curve inversion as a precursor of a financial crisis
Abstract
Currently applicable techniques for identifying financial crises are very diverse and, as a rule, relate to two main approaches: econometric and signaling. The indicators of these techniques show high efficiency directly at the start of a crisis, which necessitates the use of complementary indicators that can identify a crisis long before it occurs. The assessment of the effectiveness of using the G-curve as a precursor of a financial crisis is indicated in the paper as the key problem, which will allow taking anti-crisis government regulation measures in advance. The authors of the paper analyzed the macroeconomic parameters of the development of the Russian economy in order to identify the prerequisites for the crisis emergence. It was found that the current indicators of economic development do not allow concluding that a crisis is approaching; official forecasting institutions that use signaling and econometric assessment techniques in their activities do not confirm this fact. Nevertheless, the conducted analysis of the yield curve configuration indicates the formation of negative conditions for the emergence of an economic recession. The authors have proved the role of the G-curve in assessing the behavioral patterns of market participants, which often become the basis for the imbalance of financial relations. The paper substantiates the necessity to use a systemic approach in the process of identifying financial crises, taking into account both the short-term forecasting capabilities of econometric and signaling techniques and long-term assessing investment sentiment, which will ensure the timeliness and comprehensiveness of the anti-crisis state regulation measures.



The system of business continuity management and its mechanism for ensuring the sustainability of an economic entity
Abstract
The economy transformation under sanction-restrictive conditions requires revising the strategy of functioning of domestic business, in which due attention should be paid to issues of monitoring of business continuity of organizations. The ability of management personnel to ensure the sustainability of an economic entity and its further existence in the near future has a direct impact on the well-being of the state. Transformation of the internal infrastructure is the basis for risk control and maintaining the stability of a company, which is ensured by the internal control system. In this regard, the management of the business continuity system is considered as a catalyst accelerating fundamental changes in business processes, engineering and technologies, their adaptability to new realities and identification of the need for reengineering. The study of international regulations in the field of risk management and business continuity management allowed identifying that the possibility of high-quality, correct and timely maintenance of internal company processes requires proactivity of the internal control system. As a result of historical insight, the concept of business continuity management is revealed both from the standpoint of company recovery and as a prophylactic measure to prevent a crisis and its consequences. The authors propose a structured mechanism for business continuity management in accordance with ISO standards, which describes the activities of economic entities as a set of obligations assumed by the organization and as a result conditioned by a specific type of activity, with the disclosure of elements including operational planning and management; business impact analysis and risk assessment; business continuity strategy and decisions; continuity plans and procedures; training program; assessment of documentation and capabilities for ensuring business continuity; implementation of business continuity management in the company’s traditions.


