Forecast parameters of the crop industry development in the Rostov region


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Abstract

The paper describes the forecast parameters of the sustainable development of the crop industry in the Rostov region, which determine the key trends of the agricultural sector of the region. The data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Rostov region, research papers and scientific publications on this problem were used as the analytical base for conducting the research. The research involved the analysis of the current state of the crop production industry in the Rostov region and an assessment of its resource potential. Studies have shown that the effective use of the existing resource potential of the industry in the region in conditions of its significant dependence on the imported seed material and technologies makes it possible to ensure sustainable qualitative dynamics of its development. The paper argues that the use of a scientifically based agricultural system makes allows stimulating positive dynamics of economic growth without additional financial investments. This scientifically based approach is the basis for the development of the forecast parameters for the crop production industry development. The process of forecasting based on trend modeling of crop yields and rationalization of the cropping plan, methods of chain substitutions, and expert assessments resulted in three forecast scenarios for the development of the industry: the first (target), the second (inertial) and the third (mixed). The implementation of the first (target) option involves an increase in the yield of cultivated crops, taking into account the use of high-quality seed material and optimal weather conditions, as well as the transition to a scientifically based structure of cropping pattern. The inertial option is based on the rationalization of the agricultural land structure while maintaining the current yield. The mixed variant is characterized by an increase in yield with a constant structure of the area of sowing. The most preferred and promising option for the crop production industry in the Rostov region is the implementation of the target option. Ignoring the science-based approach in the long term prevents from full unlocking the regional potential of the industry.

About the authors

Vladimir Vasilyevich Kuznetsov

Rostov State University of Economics,
Rostov-on-Don

Email: kholodovama@rambler.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3676-1349

Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation, chief scientist of the Department “Agrarian Economics and Standards”

Russian Federation

Oleg Andreevich Kholodov

Rostov State University of Economics,
Rostov-on-Don

Email: 9034332466@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3629-8086

Doctor of Sciences (Economics), professor of Chair “Analysis of Economic Activity and Forecasting”

Russian Federation

Tamara Ivanovna Sharovatova

Federal Rostov Agricultural Research Centre, Rostov Region, Aksay District, Rassvet Village

Author for correspondence.
Email: tamara-sharovatova@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0772-5314

PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, senior researcher of the Department “Agrarian Economics and Standards”

Russian Federation

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