No 4 (2023)

The paper describes the forecast parameters of the sustainable development of the crop industry in the Rostov region, which determine the key trends of the agricultural sector of the region. The data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Rostov region, research papers and scientific publications on this problem were used as the analytical base for conducting the research. The research involved the analysis of the current state of the crop production industry in the Rostov region and an assessment of its resource potential. Studies have shown that the effective use of the existing resource potential of the industry in the region in conditions of its significant dependence on the imported seed material and technologies makes it possible to ensure sustainable qualitative dynamics of its development. The paper argues that the use of a scientifically based agricultural system makes allows stimulating positive dynamics of economic growth without additional financial investments. This scientifically based approach is the basis for the development of the forecast parameters for the crop production industry development. The process of forecasting based on trend modeling of crop yields and rationalization of the cropping plan, methods of chain substitutions, and expert assessments resulted in three forecast scenarios for the development of the industry: the first (target), the second (inertial) and the third (mixed). The implementation of the first (target) option involves an increase in the yield of cultivated crops, taking into account the use of high-quality seed material and optimal weather conditions, as well as the transition to a scientifically based structure of cropping pattern. The inertial option is based on the rationalization of the agricultural land structure while maintaining the current yield. The mixed variant is characterized by an increase in yield with a constant structure of the area of sowing. The most preferred and promising option for the crop production industry in the Rostov region is the implementation of the target option. Ignoring the science-based approach in the long term prevents from full unlocking the regional potential of the industry.

The paper considers the methodological aspects of calculating the index of revealed comparative advantages (Balassa index) for the needs of the theory of global value chains. In the event of economic shocks, knowledge of the geographic origin of value added in exports helps to consider comprehensively the issue of diversification of partners in global value chains (GVCs) and contributes to faster policy decision-making, early recovery or replacement of affected links in global value chains. For the first time, comparative advantage indices were calculated for sectors of the Russian economy in terms of value added rather than gross exports. This allowed obtaining the more objective data about the presence of revealed comparative advantages in the GVC era. The study uses ADB MRIO data on value-added trade for 2011 and 2021, from which the RCAf (for forward links in GVCs) and RCAb (for backward links in GVCs) indices are calculated. Using the World Bank methodology, indices of direct and reverse participation in GVCs were calculated. The results obtained show the presence of comparative advantages in both the mining and manufacturing sectors of the Russian economy. At the same time, comparative advantage has been lost in some service sectors, such as the Sales, Maintenance, and Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles sector. In industrial sectors, comparative advantages tend to increase, especially in the sectors of extraction of minerals, timber, and metals.